Couple that with LNP base vote strengthening in more blue collar seats (bigger margins in Forde, Petrie Lindsey and becoming competitive in Blair, Fowler, Werriwa, Lilley) you can see why they might see a long term opportunity in Oxley. You're using Internet Explorer, some features might not work. Ls. Dick actually believes that he is ENTITLED to receive individual special treatment !.Dick cannot accept that HE IS NOT ENTITLED. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. But on Twitter, discussions by candidates around the country have focused on a number of issues - with race and . Across Queensland, Labor candidates retained seats in Blair, Lilley, Moreton, Oxley and Rankin, all in the south-east corner. from 2011 to 2018. cheers WD, Just to clarify something. Amazing that Labor can afford to have total wastes of space in their few safe seats in QLD. I predict Coalition to win 74-78 seats. Surely?. As the great sage Richo says Never hang onto a mug. Yes Wreathy, I specifically meant the LNP in Queensland.Youre correct in that the Coalition must try to win seats like Hunter, Eden Monaro and Corangamite to ward off loses to Labor.The Queensland LN P are quite concerned about the seat of Brisbane. The division is named after the Australian explorer, John Oxley. The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. Page. Some candidates subsequently amended their registration forms to reflect new district numbers. President of Federal Young Labor. I think some of you might recall on ABCs Election night coverage in 2019, Antony Greens surprise when early votes came through from Blair which suggested that a swing was in play that would lose Neumann his safe seat. I thundered back at her that is a disgraceful thing to say. I suggest Cook since its the most boring seat. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlams resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980. 1. Also in terms of specifically Moreton, alot of the seat lines up with state seats with very solid Labor support (and strengthening). It is currently represented by Milton Dick , the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Oxley. Labor is visionless and uninspiring as of 2021, compare Albo to Kevin 07 and Obama 08. Latest Update On WAEC GCE . What are your views on NSW despite not living here? Forest Lake, QLD, 4078, PO Box 4042
History . Read the story here. Mr McMillen will be pitted against Labor MP Milton Dick, who has held the seat of Oxley since 2016 and has a margin of 6.4 per cent. Appreciate you sharing! Strewth has been reliably informed the two are no longer on talking terms but told the ice may thaw by Christmas, since borders and lockdowns are likely to still be in place, and neither can escape the family dinner table. J Hogg from 1998 to 2000. If PHON gets higher Primary vote than the LNP, PHON could gain the seat from LNP preferences taking it off Labor. Choose an option from the drop-down menu (electorate, locality/suburb or postcode). Join us for an opportunity to get to know the candidates for the 2022 Federal Election for our Blair and Oxley electorates. LNP pouring resources here. Wont that diminish the main electoral threads ? Redirecting to /news/elections/federal/2022/guide/oxle Under 2012 state figures not a single seat would have been won federally for Labor with maybe the exception of Griffith (which will fall). Stronger Communities Round 8 - EOIs now Open! You can pour as much shit as you like on my politics, but accusing of being ordinary, or in some way mundane is just too much too bear. Both of these industries were heavily unionised throughout much of the 20th century, the strong connection between Labor and the unions was a healthy pipeline of votes directly to Labor from their blue-collar base. First Name Last Name Email Mobile phone (optional) Send me email updates Send me text messages How many other people are you bringing? This was done to ensure each electorate has roughly . You are trying to close the tab or browser. WD stuck in lockdown in Warringah presently mate (there are worse places to be). Elected to the House of Representatives for Oxley, Queensland, 2016. Please walk round for a drink sometime my number is 0425365419 Oh no please dont be fooled by the margin, Remember this did flip in 1996 even with Pauline Hanson being dis-endorsed, I am predicting a 1975-1996 style wipe-out for Labor in QLD, the LNP is likely to match Newman 2012 levels at the federal election. Election results in Oxley at the 2019 federal election It is likelihood that One Nation and UAPs adoption of the negative sentiment surrounding Covid measures throughout the pandemic will strongly play out in SE QLD in the election. The Federal election results in Cowper showed that many people of this area want to be represented by someone who cares about climate action, protecting the environment, social equity and integrity in politics. Interestingly Oxley did retain for Labor in the Fraser years (Someone tell me what the boundaries were when Bill Hayden held this seat) Everyone assumed 2013 was a high watermark for the coalition and it was not. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. I did the calculations for Blair. Labor will retain Oxley despite Daniel having no polling to suggest federal LNP enjoying Campbell Newman like levels of support in 2012. An official website of the United States government. Your correct. The rural areas here even at the 2019 were reasonably close and make up less than 30%. Hansons seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016. The sense of entitlement is just awesomely out there. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. This election was held using instant-runoff voting . Elected Official of the Australian Labor Party (Qld) from 2000 to 2008. . Councillor, Richlands Ward, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2016. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament. The LNP managed 52.4% in the north. The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Major "Moogy" Sumner Senate Candidate for SA. Federally funded infrastructure projects that should have been completed years ago, are still in the design and/or consultation process due to incompetence and lack of urgency for communities affected by these required projects. Ive never agreed with this logic. I can give you a scenario where Labor gains Higgins,Boothby,Hasluck,Pearce,Swan,LaTrobe,Chisholm,Deakin,Flinders and STILL lose the election because of their inevitable losses in QLD and NSW. He is frequently in Blair as you can see in his social media and he relocated the senate office to Speingfield to focus on this seat and Oxley. Electorates by alphabetical list . And for all of winediamond deriding of senior state Ministers in Labor (Cameron Dick, Steven Miles etc) they still continue to easily spank their state LNP opponents every election. But if it remains below 50% TPP Labor could loose the Seat to either LNP or PHON. Password must be a minimum of 8 characters and contain at least one upper case letter, one lower case letter, one number, and one special character(@$!%*?&). The only seat I think Labor could hold in QLD is Rankin, But that will be close as well. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been split into South-East and North. Even a small swing of 1-2% will make it a comfortable win for the ALP. When Scott Morrison strode into Abla's Pastries in gentrifying Granville on Thursday, it marked his fifth trip to the Labor-held . The race on election night will between Labor and the Greens to see who comes second and will be the beneficiary of the other's preferences. A Des Moines Register analysis of decisions from the 2021-2022 term found that Oxley wrote or joined in the majority decision in 97 of 105 cases, more than any other justice. Has Scott Morrison or one of his underlings turned up here yet? Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. They will always take you down !. As an example, The Greens is stating it will recommend preferencing Labor ahead of the Coalition at the 2022 Federal Election. Across the country voting patterns confirm that people want their MP to represent the community rather than the big parties. Cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair. The LNP's candidate for the relatively safe Labor seat of Oxley . District maps on this page are approximate. WHEN HAVE I EVER SOUNDED LIKE ANYONE WHO WOULD BE PART OF ANY political PARTY ???. And then lost the next primary election, largely because voters didn't like that she made it easier for "children to disobey their parents". Booths have been divided into five areas. Authorised by Clive Palmer. Outline up to 3 topics that they believe they would advocate for introduction or change within the electorate. The LNP are basically aiming to hold their own seats rather than win any Labor .Little effort going into contesting Blair,Lilley or Moreton by the LNP. Also state politics (excluding the effects of the personalities of Miles and Dick) will play a key role and while the state Liberal government was doing well in NSW, the recent far-too-late lockdown could prove costly in seats like Reid, which have been marginal for a long time. Assessment Id have this as the best chance for a Liberal pickup in QLD, probably more than Lilley or Moreton. Delegate to the Australian Labor Party State Conference (Qld.) Do you want to save current progress? A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. Thats news to the Morrison ministry. Oxley is located in south east Queensland, and covers the south western suburbs of Brisbane. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee. These are the battleground seats Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are targeting. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Yes ,its certainly true that wine diamond would know all about Dicks. Maybe there should be a thread just for general election soothsaying. Each candidate will give a short overview of their plans along with taking questions from the audience. It is my observation that both major parties are underestimating the detrimental effects of government overreach during the last term. LNP only preselected their candidate Sam Biggins in late December though. Article from Alice Workman (strewth) in the OZ today, Oh no, theres a soap opera-sized feud within the Dick Dynasty! Charlotte McCabe Candidate for Newcastle. I dont think any of the eastern states can be ignored period. Blair was super marginal at this election because Labor suffered a huge swing here and in most of QLD in 2019. The teals and Greens seats arent likely going to be won by Labor now they have got them. It always staggers me that MPs that are clearly incapable of ministerial responsibility, are allowed to remain. Also may I point out here 7/10 people have never heard of him either. Steven Miles IS ABSOLUTELY the national champion Wanker. Government to take advice on social media app, WA premier responds to reports Aishwaryas family seeking compensation, Not willing to wait: Push for urgent action in fight against deadly and incurable disease, 'Exhausted' community marks a year since traumatic floods, Motorcyclist slammed for perilous stunt on busy freeway: Bloody idiot. 1. How ridiculous & completely absurd There are a few factors bludgeoning this Labor vote in Blair (and similar QLD divisions) from all different directions. Even if its somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. Unless of course you mean the LNP specifically in QLD; its hard to tell on this site since we all use the terms interchanegably! Join us for an opportunity to get to know the candidates for the 2022 Federal Election for our Blair and Oxley electorates. Tony Adams Candidate for Bennelong. John Media incorrectly claims there are no Labor Marginals in the state when this actually still is marginal (5.3%). 3. The main parties on the ballot include the Australian Labor Party, the Coalition (Liberal and National parties), the Greens, the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and One Nation. The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. I also believe that the Chinese Australian community of Moreton (the largest in Queensland) are a conservative leaning community (economically and socially), especially as they have become more established and affluent. Election Candidates For Australian PM: What Do They Stand For? cheers WD, Ben Enter your address, then select 'Find' to display your results. Could it be that farmers are overusing the water that is available? The Victorian ALP is pretty unpopular, but any negative press is still good press against whatever will be left of the Victorian Libs. the coalition are winning 90+ seats they might come close to 100. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden. Walt Secord MLC - announced 19 August 2022; Adam Searle MLC - lost preselection 15 September 2022; Shaoquett Moselmane MLC - did not nominate for endorsement; Guy Zangari MP - announced 17 October 2022; Paul Lynch MP - not preselected November 2022 Greens movement Toggle. Independent Oxley The Sydney seats that could serve up a surprise at this election. You do realise 1996 and 1975 were landslide defeats of a ALP federal government, dont you Daniel? After Bob Hawkes win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. Blair is an old style ALP seat with some rural areas. Late in the 20th century, these unions waned and the workers that largely participated in these industries entered retirement or had been made redundant and replaced with a more atomised & casualised workforce. Our 2022 Victories. [1] https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing. Retiring MPs. Couldnt agree with you more. Labor have dominated this area on a state level, and Milton Dick in Oxley is a great member and is very visible across both electorates. Sensitivities which made them to receptive to the Coalition. . Im not even a member of any political party but traditionally I want Labor to win just not under its current direction and leader. The date change was necessitated by court order. Web: jamesmcgrath.com.au Email: [email protected] Phone: 07 5441 1800 Address: Tenancy A, 2-4 Mitchell Street, Nambour QLD 4560 Post: PO Box 772, Nambour QLD 4560. If the TPP was above at least 50% for Labor in Queensland Labor could retain the seat of Blair without PHON preferences. Each candidate will give a. promised but never delivered and has been used as a political tool for every state and federal election Former government services minister Stuart Robert is being questioned at theRobodebt inquiry, Keep up with the latest ASX and business news. The federal MP for Oxley is Milton not his brother Cameron and I question the relevance of this. This dent could have been a write-off if Job Keeper was not introduced. All the declared nominees have been invited to come along to this event to provide a brief overview of themselves and why you should vote for them. Joint statements by the Presiding Officers, Parliamentary Friendship Groups (non-country), House of Representatives chamber and business documents, Getting involved in Parliamentary Committees, Department of the House of Representatives. For all the brouhaha this will remain a Labor seat. That is to go with Jim Chalmers as treasurer. Well we all know who is going to win this fight Mother Dick !!. He will still remain a wanker regardless of how many times, & how many people vote for him !. Click here for a list only including challengers to incumbents. A list of profiles for Candidates A-Z in the Federal Election 2022 Redbank and Springfield also experienced exceptional growth. Australian Election Archive A comprehensive archive of federal elections statistics since 1901, and state and territory statisticssince 1990. All Rights Reserved. I never said the LNP would win as I do think Labor are favourites. DEMOGRAPHICS. Election Platform 2022. Electors enrolled: 104,214 (at 10.6.2019). Electoral success is no determiner of ministerial competence, or successs. Senator for Queensland. The two main industries that Ipswich was traditionally centered around was energy (think coal power-stations powering SE QLD), and transport, specifically rail (which transported coal among other things). Labor will probably hang on, but if the political realignment of blue collar voters towards the LNP continues they may well lose this sear. And 1977 was affected by the 1975 circumstances. Kathleen Irene (Oxley) Wiggins. The LNP already hold most of the seats in QLD and apart from Blair, the only other Labor seats are the Brisbane multicultural seats where Dutton would be really toxic. These new young families increasingly outnumber the traditional blue-collar voters of Blair, and likely bring with them different attitudes and voting intentions than its long term residents. On May 10, 2022, the state of New York changed the primary election date for U.S. House of Representatives candidates from 06/28/2022 to 08/23/2022. Polls dont decide elections voters do. NSW 2023 where preferences have flowed over time, Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics, NSW 2023 rising preference flows deciding the upper house. Electorate Officer to Hon. Worsteling is a retail worker and research assistant currently studying psychology at the University of Queensland. Choose your state: All ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA. Dianne Stokes Candidate #2 for the Senate. @Votante Before their spills I thought the Liberals and Nationals both choosing their leaders from Queensland was an odd choice given its played up as being important to their performance, because they just have no more room to expand upon here anymore. Whether these deals actually serve the nation more broadly is another thing. Stay up to date with the latest election results and find out who won the Australia election with our live 2022 results tracker and map of federal electorates. Candidates are listed using However before any of your suggestion can happen. I doubt theyd lose seats to the UAP/PHON anyway. This seat overlaps with Palaszczuks state seat and while the history of state to federal jumps isnt great, that might be their best option. [1] Why do we have problems with the Murray-Darling system running dry, and dryland salinity? This will have a smaller margin than Rankin at the next election, guaranteed. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[1]. The LNP have very very very little organisational support, money and volunteers in the region while Labor have an entrenched network of branches and support across all of Ipswich and Springfield. Two-party-preferred vote in Brisbane Candidates Tiana Kennedy ( Animal Justice) Justin Knudson ( United Australia) Stephen Bates ( Greens) Madonna Jarrett ( Labor) Trevor Evans ( Liberal National) Trevor Hold ( One Nation) Anthony Bull ( Liberal Democrats) Assessment Conversely Malcolm, while you cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair, I believe that it is perhaps LNPs best chance at an LNP gain in QLD. Facebook; Twitter; Senator Matt Canavan. At a state election, electors in each electoral district vote for one candidate to represent them in parliament. Oxley straddles the boundary between Brisbane and Ipswich city councils in the south-west of greater Brisbane. The big question this election is how much damage has Morrison done by stepping up his dog whistling over recent years, Chinese friends of mine are far too angry at him to even listen to any policy positions. Queensland has 30 seats and is a large reason that Labor only just got over the line to majority government by their poor performance there. Avica, 153 Gooding Drive, Merrimac, QLD 4226. Now federal senators are . 2022 0 145. 2. The 2022 Labor candidate is Rebecca Fanning,. It is also available to the public for the purpose of determining the federal division in which particular addresses, streets and localities are contained. Federal MPs. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. His party sent out fliers to almost everyone here. Ipswich may have an LNP aligned mayor but she is also a moderate and importantly ran as an Independent with a lot of support from other centrist candidates due to the appalling alternative. According to a Reuters tally of provisional results announced by electoral officials in all 36 states and the federal capital Abuja, Tinubu was leading with about 35% or 8.2 million of valid votes . The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 58.3% in the south-west and 67.3% in the south-east. Chetan Sahai Candidate for Sydney. from 2004 to 2008. Senator James McGrath. Labor really needs people like Shayne to help rebuild in QLD after going BACKWARDS a seat. The FEA period for the regularly scheduled elections start on 05/31/2022. If they would go & never return, then id be interested !. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Labor paying $1.03 to win on Sportsbet, Coalition $10.00. Certainly not Lilley. Hope that clears a few things up for you mate Neumann is complacent and believes if he is seen in the community, then that is all he is required to do. Johns observation is correct. Blair has been a Labor seat which does not draw its Labor seat from the archetypal progressive, urban Labor voter, it has instead come from a rapidly evapourating unionised blue-collar base. This sort of place is one where youd think Scott Morrison at least doesnt go down as badly as he might elsewhere. Updated: 21 April 2022 The AEC publishes enrolment statistics on a regular basis to show the number of Australians enrolled nationally, and by state/territory and division. Like Ryan, this is an almost three way contest where LNP are strong but Greens are increasingly viable. Each nominee that registers to attend will be given 5 minutes to talk and the event will be structured as below: Light finger food will be provided at this event. 255 Forest Lake Boulevard
Watch the latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus >>. The LNP are clearly dominant in Queensland at a federal level and theres obviously a perception, particularly in regional areas, that they can at least get good deals out of their Liberal partners. Party resignations cost the government its majority in early 2021, compounded by the loss of Bega to Labor at a by-election in February 2022. But it is understood Mr Green has resigned, to be replaced by Kyle McMillen, a former Lilley candidate and military veteran who works for defence firm Rheinmetall. I am interested in watching the rise of the minor parties in this electorate, and others. Small swing of 1-2 % will make it a comfortable win for the 2022 Federal election for Blair... Here for a list of profiles for candidates A-Z in the state when this still... Mps that are clearly incapable of ministerial competence, or successs Moreton, Oxley and,... 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By candidates around the country have focused on a number of issues - with race.. Determiner of ministerial competence, or successs the FEA period for the ALP was won in 1949 by Liberal Donald. The great sage Richo says never hang onto a mug their plans along with taking questions from the.. Had previously been included in Oxley smaller margin than Rankin at the 2022 Federal election a... Ever SOUNDED like ANYONE WHO would be part of any political party?. State Conference ( QLD ) from 2000 to 2008. and Anthony Albanese are targeting Drive, Merrimac QLD... Your state: all ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA opera-sized feud within the electorate use Labor! That could serve up a surprise at this election Find & # x27 ; s candidate for SA Ipswich. Be won by Labor now they have got them Ryan, this is an old style seat. One of his underlings turned up here yet I question the relevance of this for candidates A-Z the... Or one of his underlings turned up here yet candidate Donald Cameron secure.gov websites use HTTPS Labor paying 1.03... Click here for a list of profiles for candidates A-Z in the City of Brisbane the latest on! Dont you Daniel would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be ) in 1988, which... Do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here Federal MP for Oxley,,. Organization in the City of Ipswich have been split into south-east and North election soothsaying his brother Cameron I., Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister include Redbank, Forest Lake, QLD 4226 likely scenario where Labor loses.... Remain a wanker regardless of how many times, & how many times, & how people...